Impact of spatial dispersion, evolution, and selection on Ebola Zaire Virus epidemic waves

Abstract

Ebola virus Zaire (EBOV) has reemerged in Africa, emphasizing the global importance of this pathogen. Amidst the response to the current epidemic, several gaps in our knowledge of EBOV evolution are evident. Specifically, uncertainty has been raised regarding the potential emergence of more virulent viral variants through amino acid substitutions. Glycoprotein (GP), an essential component of the EBOV genome, is highly variable and a potential site for the occurrence of advantageous mutations. For this study, we reconstructed the evolutionary history of EBOV by analyzing 65 GP sequences from humans and great apes over diverse locations across epidemic waves between 1976 and 2014. We show that, although patterns of spatial dispersion throughout Africa varied, the evolution of the virus has largely been characterized by neutral genetic drift. Therefore, the radical emergence of more transmissible variants is unlikely, a positive finding, which is increasingly important on the verge of vaccine deployment.