WOMEN’S EDUCATIONAL EMPOWERMENT AND REPLACEMENT-LEVEL FERTILITY IN CHINA: A COHORT ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study examines how the relationship between women’s education and the likelihood of having a second child has evolved among three birth cohorts in China (1961–1970, 1971–1980 and 1981–1990). Using six waves of the China Family Panel Studies (2010–2020), the analysis applied logistic regression models to focus on second-birth progression as an indicator of replacement-level fertility. The findings show that the traditional negative correlation between higher education and second births has persisted but has altered in form across generations. Among women with the lowest level of education, this association has weakened over time. In contrast, among those with a senior high education in the youngest cohort, it has become stronger. These shifts suggest that educational expansion has not eliminated fertility differences, but rather has narrowed and deepened them, redistributing them across educational groups. The study also highlights that educational empowerment does not necessarily lead to higher fertility rates. Rising labour-market returns to education, combined with limited family-support infrastructure, create significant opportunity costs for a second birth, especially for educated women in urban settings. Simply removing birth restrictions is insufficient to reverse fertility decline; more comprehensive childcare, employment and anti-discrimination policies are required to support women in combining work and family life.