A practical guide to estimating treatment effects in patients with rheumatic diseases using real-world data

Abstract

Objective: Randomized controlled trials are considered the gold standard in study methodology. However, due to their study design and inclusion criteria, these studies may not capture the heterogeneity of real-world patient populations. In contrast, the lack of randomization and the presence of both measured and unmeasured confounding factors could bias the estimated treatment effect when using observational data. While causal inference methods allow for the estimation of treatment effects, their mathematical complexity may hinder their application in clinical research. Methods: We present a practical, nontechnical guide using a common statistical package (Stata) and a motivational simulated dataset that mirrors real-world observational data from patients with rheumatic diseases. We demonstrate regression analysis, regression adjustment, inverse-probability weighting, propensity score (PS) matching and two robust estimation methods. Results: Although the methods applied to control for confounding factors produced similar results, the commonly used one-to-one PS matching method could yield biased results if not thoroughly assessed. Conclusion: The guide we propose aims to facilitate the use of readily available methods in a common statistical package. It may contribute to robust and transparent epidemiological and statistical methods, thereby enhancing effectiveness research using observational data in rheumatology.