How the climate will change in this century?

Abstract

In order to support political and economical decision makers by providing climate information for the future, it is essential to analyze regional climate model results. These models are capable to describe the regional climate conditions of individual countries using 25 km horizontal resolution, whereas global climate models are too coarse for such details. This paper discusses the regional eff ects of global warming using regional climate model experiments from the PRECIS model developed at the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office. Since PRECIS was adapted at the Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University in the recent years, important regional/local conditions could be taken into account during the modelling process. In the experiments of PRECIS, three diff erent emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B2) are considered to provide estimations for the 21st century. Our conclusions highlight the significant warming tendency in Hungary, especially in summer. The frequency of cold temperature extremes is projected to decrease significantly while warm extremes tend to occur more oft en in the future. Furthermore, significant drying is projected in the region, especially, in summer. In winter the precipitation is likely to increase.