A study on total power output fluctuation of photovoltaic power generation systems considering independency of insolation fluctuation

Abstract

Based on the independence of insolation fluctuations among various points, this paper estimates the standard deviation of total power output fluctuation of photovoltaic power generation systems (PVSs) of high penetration. In order to apply the simplified calculation of total insolation fluctuation property based on the independence, this study develops an area model consisting of a number of blocks, where the PVS power output pattern of the cycles shorter than a few ten minutes is considered as independent among blocks by considering the independency evaluation of insolation. This study evaluates the standard deviation of apparent electricity demand σA involving the PVS power output as a negative demand, by assuming that the standard deviation of power output fluctuation is the same for all blocks as a extreme case. The results suggest that crA may be as large as the original standard deviation of electricity demand, if the PVSs of mass penetration are dispersed in the large area according to the geographical distribution of existing residences. © 2011 The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan.