Projection of further expansion of oil palm plantation in Jambi Province

Abstract

The expansion of oil palm plantations has become of global concern. Jambi Province in Indonesia is one of the regions experiencing a rapid shift in land use, and oil palm plantation, settlement, and agriculture have emerged as the primary force behind this shift. This study aims to project scenarios of future land-use change and expansion of oil palm plantations in Jambi Province in 2030, 2060, and 2100. This study uses land-use map Jambi Province and driving factor data, including elevation, slope, river, road, and forest. Projections of land-use change scenarios are conducted using the Land Change Modeler (LCM), in which Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) is the model base. The validation of the model against historical land-use changes showed an overall kappa value of 0.97. In the no-conservation scenario, assuming a continuation of the trends from 1990 to 2011, the forest area continues to decrease. Oil palm will replace forest as the dominant land-use cover in Jambi Province in 2100. Driving factors explaining the spatial distribution of oil palm plantation expansion include distance from forest, distance from road, and elevation. Our study shows the importance of government regulations' importance in slowing or stopping deforestation, especially for forests near plantations.