Party and Leadership Effects on Referendum Voting: The Italian 2020 Constitutional Referendum

Abstract

Unlike other ballots, referendums do not provide voters a list of parties or candidates to choose from. Here we argue that referendum voting behaviour, however, can be understood through the lends of partisanship and the socio-economic context during the voting period. The personalisation of contemporary politics would also suggest an important role of political leadership in swaying voting decisions. The article applies this theory in analysis of the vote YES of the 2020 Italian Constitutional Referendum. We attribute the success of the 2020 referendum to the role of partisanship, leader favorability, systemic and elite discontent, and the role that interest played in voting decision. Exploring the role that party leaders may have in the voting behaviour on referenda is an area for future research, especially in an era of the presidentialized political parties.