NeUCAST: Seasonal neural forecast of power grid time series

Abstract

In the smart power grid, short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a crucial step in scheduling and planning for future load, so as to improve the reliability, cost, and emissions of the power grid. Different from traditional time series forecast, STLF is a more challenging task, because of the complex demand of active and reactive power from numerous categories of electrical loads and the effects of environment. Therefore, we propose NeuCast, a seasonal neural forecasting method, which dynamically models various loads as co-evolving time series in a hidden space, as well as extra weather conditions, in a neural network structure. NeuCast captures seasonality and patterns of the time series by integrating factor modeling and hidden state recognition. NeuCast can also detect anomalies and forecast under different temperature assumptions. Extensive experiments on 134 real-word datasets show the improvements of NeuCast over the state-of-the-art methods.