Cyclical climate oscillation alters species statistical relationships with local habitat

Abstract

As anthropogenic climate change increases the temperatures of the world’s oceans, the survival rates, spatial distributions, and phenology of marine species are affected. Additionally, cyclical climate oscillations, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), influence species presences throughout the Atlantic Basin. We evaluate the potential effects of local habitat variability on the nearshore presence of 7 commercial fish species along the South Atlantic Bight. Employing random forest models, we assess the relationships between historical observed presence and bottom temperature (BT), salinity, benthic habitat structure, and the NAO. Our results suggest that for some species, the influence of BT on species nearshore presence depends on the phase of the NAO. Thus, the statistical responses of some species to changing ocean temperatures will largely depend on the phase of the NAO.