Development and Forecasting Drought Indices Using SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) for Local Level Agricultural Water Management

Abstract

Drought is primarily an agricultural phenomenon that refers to conditions where plants are responsive to certain levels of moisture stress that affect both the vegetative growth and yield of crops. It occurs when supply of moisture stored in the soil is insufficient to meet the optimum need of a particular type of crop. Causes of drought in Bangladesh are related to climate variability and non-availability of surface water resources. While it may be possible to indicate the immediate cause of a drought in a particular location, it often is not possible to identify an underlying cause. Therefore, to improve all these services in favour of enhancing agricultural production and reducing food insecurity in Bangladesh, it is mandatory to develop an effective way for disseminating the SPI data indicating drought indices to farmers, and enhance drought and climate resilience. To develop future plan and policy in agricultural sector of Bangladesh, it is vital to understand the previous droughts events with accurate indicators. Since this study will contribute to the agricultural development of Bangladesh therefore there is an obvious need to understand the change of drought frequency all over Bangladesh using a standardized drought index. The main intention of this project is to prepare a proper baseline for forecasting drought indices using SPI data. So, the final outcome of this project would be a knowledge base where a proper forecasting tools and dissemination networks can be updated/developed for farmers.