Predicted future mortality attributed to increases in temperature and PM10 concentration under representative concentration pathway scenarios

Abstract

As climate change progresses, understanding the impact on human health associated with the temperature and air pollutants has been paramount. However, the predicted effect on temperature associated with particulate matter (PM10) is not well understood due to the difficulty in predicting the local and regional PM10. We compared temperature-attributable mortality for the baseline (2003-2012), 2030s (2026-2035), 2050s (2046-2055), and 2080s (2076-2085) based on a distributed lag non-linear model by simultaneously considering assumed levels of PM10 on historical and projected temperatures under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The considered projected PM10 concentrations of 35, 50, 65, 80, and 95 µg/m3 were based on historical concentration quantiles. Our findings confirmed greater temperature-attributable risks at PM10 concentrations above 65 µg/m3 due to the modification effect of the pollutants on temperature. In addition, this association between temperature and PM10 was higher under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. We also confirmed regional heterogeneity in temperature-attributable deaths by considering PM10 concentrations in South Korea with higher risks in heavily populated areas. These results demonstrated that the modification association of air pollutants on health burdens attributable to increasing temperatures should be considered by researchers and policy makers.