A mathematical modelling approach for planning health resources after earthquake: Kırıkkale city example

Abstract

Earthquakes are the most common type of disaster, which causes life and property loss. After the earthquake, chaotic conditions make the intervention and recovery process difficult. In the management of this process, the resources available (health, shelter, AFAD teams, etc.) it is necessary to successfully allocate it to the debris areas. In the early hours after the earthquakes, the injured are more likely to survive in relation to the severity of injury (heavy and detertable wounded) and in the correct proportion of the time elapsed; as time progresses, this is less likely. Therefore, the first intervention of the injured from the wreckage must be carried out and those in need must be rushed to the hospital. Therefore, health resources planning is crucial to reducing the devastating effects of the earthquake. In this study, a mathematical model of 0-1 mixed numbers was developed, aimed at minimizing the number of injured people who lost their lives after the earthquake. In the model, it is requested to assign health units (doctors, nurses, equipment) to perform crime scene triage to the debris areas, assign ambulances to the hospital for the transfer of injured people who have been triyed at the crime scene, and to decide which hospitals the ambulances should be directed to. The modeling of the model as a markov chain of health changes in the multi-period and injured people is a contributor to literature. The developed model was tested using the GAMS CPLEX solver with possible earthquake scenario data for the Kirikkale province. The test results show that the model developed can be used as an effective planning tool for healthcare allocation.