Wildfire Risk Assessment Using the Fire Weather Index (FWI) in Greece

Abstract

This study assesses future wildfire risk in Greece using the Fire Weather Index (FWI), based on data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Historical conditions (1971–2000) and future projections (2069–2098) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were analyzed, with a primary focus on the core fire season (May–October) and consideration of April and November to evaluate potential seasonal extension. The results show a significant shift toward higher fire risk classes, with the “very high” category increasing from 24% historically to 31% under RCP4.5 and 37% under RCP8.5, and the “extreme” class rising from 4% to 11% and 16%, respectively. Southern Greece, especially Crete, and the Dodecanese, is projected to experience the most severe increases. These changes, driven by rising temperatures and intensified drought conditions, indicate an increased likelihood of extreme fire events, posing increased risks to ecosystems, infrastructure, and regional economies. The findings highlight the need for targeted adaptation and fire management strategies.