Twitter superstars don't win elections: A Poster on Twitter Campaigning and Electoral Realities in the 2021West Bengal Assembly Elections

Abstract

Twitter's role in driving political discourse is well documented in scholarship, yet, its affect on electoral outcomes is unclear. In this work, we analyze the Twitter activity of candidates from four major political parties contesting in assembly elections in the Indian state of West Bengal, alongside the outcomes of the election. We find that winning candidates are more likely to have a Twitter presence. However, Twitter presence in itself does not increase the likelihood of winning. We also find that candidates with high degrees of social media influence, typically celebrities, are more likely to lose, as their high following comes to signify their status as outsiders in politics. Finally, studying sub-regional metrics of social media engagement and election outcomes, we find that Twitter offers us insight into the geographical logic of attention paid by parties in the electoral campaign.