The current and future potential geographical distribution of the solanum fruit fly, bactrocera latifrons (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China

Abstract

The solanum fruit fly, Bactrocera latifrons (Hendel), is a major pest throughout South and South East Asia, including very few parts of southern China, and has invaded Hawaii and recently the continent of Africa (Tanzania and Kenya). With the development of international trade in fruits and vegetables, B. latifrons has become a potential threat to Chinese agriculture. In this study, CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3 were used to predict the current and future potential geographical distribution of B. latifrons in China. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes most parts of southern China (about 32.2% of all 748 meteorological stations), from 16.544°N to 32.442°N. Optimal climate conditions occur in most areas of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao. The factors limiting the boundary of its suitability range are mainly the cold and dry stress. Climate change scenario for the 2020s indicates that the future potential geographical distribution will be increased by 5% of the total land areas of China, and the northern distribution boundary will move from 32.442°N to 33.408°N. There are 34 non-suitable climate sites change into suitable, mainly in Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Shanxi, Gansu, Sichuan and Tibet, because of China is likely to become hotter and wetter in the 2020s. In order to prevent the introduction and spread of B. latifrons, the present plant quarantine and monitor measures should be enhanced more where are projected to be suitable areas under current as well as future climatic conditions. At the same time, we should strengthen education for the public's awareness of plant protection. © 2012 IFIP International Federation for Information Processing.