Peramalan Jumlah Produksi Kelapa Sawit Provinsi Kalimantan Timur Menggunakan Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis

Abstract

Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is a nonparametric method that does not rely on assumptions such as stationary nature or residual normality. SSA separates time series data into its components, which are trend, seasonality, and error (noise). This study aimed to obtain forecasting results for the amount of oil palm production in East Kalimantan Province for the period January 2021 to December 2021 using SSA. Based on the results of the data analysis, in the process of forming the forecasting model with in-sample data, the parameter window length (L) was 24, which produced a MAPE value of 0.464%, and while the forecasting model validation process used out-sample data, it produced a MAPE value of 41.172%.