PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG PESAWAT DI BANDARA INTERNASIONAL AHMAD YANI DENGAN METODE HOLT WINTER’S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN METODE EXPONENTIAL EMOOTHING EVENT BASED

Abstract

Forecasting the number of airplane passengers can be a consideration for the airline at Ahmad Yani International Airport related with addition of extra flight. The number of airplane passengers can be influenced by certain seasonal or special events. The seasonal influences can be known through historical data patterns and if there is a seasonal pattern, the Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing method can be used. Exponential Smoothing Event Based (ESEB) forecasting method can be use to see the special events that effect the number of airplane passengers at Ahmad Yani International Airport. After compared, the Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing method is a better method of forecasting the number of airplane passengers at Ahmad Yani International Airport because it has a smaller error value, namely the MSE value and the MAPE value than the Exponential Smoothing Event Based (ESEB)method. The MAPE and MSE values be produced from the best method each of  5,644139% and 619,998,718 .Keywords : Airplane Passengers, Seasonal Pattern, Special Event, Exponential Smoothing Event Based , Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing.