Understanding the propagation and control strategies of congestion in urban rail transit based on epidemiological dynamics model

Abstract

With the construction of the urban rail transit (URT) network, the explosion of passenger volume is more rapid than the increased capacity of the newly built infrastructure, which results in serious passenger flow congestion (PLC). Understanding the propagation process of PLC is the key to formulate sustainable policies for reducing congestion and optimizing management. This study proposes a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model based on the theories of epidemiological dynamics and complex network to analyze the PLC propagation. We simulate the PLC propagation under various situations, and analyze the sensitivity of PLC propagation to model parameters. Finally, the control strategies of restricting PLC propagation are introduced from two aspects, namely, supply control and demand control. The results indicate that both of the two control strategies contribute to relieving congestion pressure. The propagating scope of PLC is more sensitive when taking mild supply control, whereas, the demand control strategy shows some advantages in flexibly implementing and dealing with serious congestion. These results are of important guidance for URT agencies to understand the mechanism of PLC propagation and formulate appropriate congestion control strategies.