Citizen Action and Elite Responses: Opposition Mass Movements and Regime Change From Within, 1900–2019

Abstract

The mobilization of opposition mass movements may spur regime change via different processes, including popular revolutions or coups. We zoom in on one salient channel through which mass mobilization may induce regime change, namely via provoking incumbent responses. Synthesizing different arguments, we detail how incumbent elites sometimes preemptively alter the regime to diffuse threats by incumbent-guided democratization or by using opposition mobilization as windows of opportunity to transform the regime into one they prefer over the status quo (e.g., via self-coups). We combine data on opposition campaigns with detailed data on modes of regime breakdown and find that, overall, sustained mass movements are clearly associated with subsequent incumbent-led transitions. When disaggregating, violent movements typically precede only non-liberalizing transitions. In contrast, nonviolent movements are associated with all incumbent-led transitions, including democratizing ones. Thus, nonviolence is a key component in many successful campaigns for democracy, also absent full-fledged revolutions.