Assessment of capabilities of military groupings (forces) based on the functional group "engage"

Abstract

An approach to assessing the capabilities of groupings of troops (forces) based on the use of the combinatorial method with the limited base of arguments on the example of the functional group of capabilities "Engage" was proposed. Assessment of capabilities of groupings of troops (forces) is carried out within the framework of defense planning, with the aim of determining the prospective structure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (defense forces). The current Order of evaluation of capabilities of groupings of troops (forces) in the Armed Forces of Ukraine is based on the expert methods of evaluation. The shortcomings of the particular Order are: subjectivity, long duration and personnel involvement (periodic distraction of specialists from performing their functional duties). Therefore, the development of new approaches to assessment of the capabilities of groupings of troops (forces) based of modern scientific analytical methods is a relevant scientific challenge. According to the NATO standards, capabilities are divided into nine functional groups that contain 464 capabilities. To develop the method for capabilities assessment with the use of the analytical methods taking into consideration the existing regulatory framework, the analysis of the existing Order of evaluation of capabilities of groupings of troops (forces) in the Armed Forces of Ukraine was carried out. The analysis revealed that the functional groups are of different levels. It is appropriate to group them into three classes: the class of technical equipment, the class of personnel training and the class of institutional capabilities. In this case, it was determined that the capabilities carriers depending on the level of functioning are different in nature. That is why it is necessary to evaluate them by different components. It is proposed to distinguish between elementary (armament and military equipment) and group capabilities (subdivisions, military units, formations, and groupings). The research revealed the analytical dependence of the impact of elementary carriers of capabilities on the effectiveness of task execution by group carriers of capabilities. The specified approach will be implemented in the automated decision support system during capability­based defense planning. The application of this approach will make it possible to reduce the impact of the subjective factor and reduce the time to make a reasonable decision on the required structure of a grouping of troops (forces) to execute the set tasks, to estimate a sufficient number of options for its application. In addition, the implementation of the proposed approach will offer an opportunity to identify: the quantitative and qualitative demand of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (defense forces) in provision with the samples of armament and military equipment, the necessary amount of resources for the development of the Armed Forces (defense forces). The proposed analytical method will make it possible without involving experts to assess the role of each military formation from the defense forces, determine the priority plan for the development of the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (defense forces).