Evaluation of five models for constructing forest NPP-age relationships in China based on 3121 field survey samples

Abstract

Forest net primary productivity (NPP), representing the net carbon gain from the atmosphere, varies significantly with forest age. Reliable forest NPP-age relationships are essential for forest carbon cycle modeling and prediction. These relationships can be derived from forest inventory or field survey data, but it is unclear which model is the most effective in simulating forest NPP variation with age. Here, we aim to establish NPP-age relationships for China's forests based on 3121 field survey samples. Five models, including the semi-empirical mathematical (SEM) function, the second-degree polynomial (SDP) function, the logarithmic (L) function, the Michaelis-Menten (M) function, and the Γ function, were compared against field data. Results of the comparison showed that the SEM and Γ functions performed much better than the other three models, but due to the limited field survey samples at old ages, the Γ function showed a sharp decrease in NPP (decreased to almost zero) at old ages when building some forest NPP-age curves, while SEM could capture the variations in forest NPP at old ages reasonably well. Considering the overall performance with currently available forest field survey samples, SEM was regarded as the optimal NPP-age model. The finalized forest NPP-age curves for five forest types in six regions of China can facilitate forest carbon cycle modeling and future projection by using the process-based Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon (InTEC) model in China and may also be useful for other regions.