Using Machine Learning and Analytical Modeling to Predict Poly-Crystalline PV Performance in Jordan

Abstract

This study investigates the performance prediction of poly-crystalline photovoltaic (PV) systems in Jordan using experimental data, analytical models, and machine learning approaches. Two 5 kWp grid-connected PV systems at Applied Science Private University in Amman were analyzed: one south-oriented and another east–west (EW)-oriented. Both systems are fixed at an 11° tilt angle. Linear regression, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), ElasticNet, and artificial neural networks (ANNs) were employed for performance prediction. Among these, linear regression outperformed the others due to its accuracy, interpretability, and computational efficiency, making it an effective baseline model. LASSO and ElasticNet were also explored for their regularization benefits in managing feature relevance and correlation. ANNs were utilized to capture complex nonlinear relationships, but their performance was limited, likely because of the small sample size and lack of temporal dynamics. Regularization and architecture choices are discussed in this paper. For the EW system, linear regression predicted an annual yield of 1510.45 kWh/kWp with a 2.1% error, compared to 1433.9 kWh/kWp analytically (3.12% error). The south-oriented system achieved 1658.15 kWh/kWp with a 1.5% error, outperforming its analytical estimate of 1772.9 kWh/kWp (7.89% error). Productivity gains for the south-facing system reached 23.64% (analytical), 10.43% (experimental), and 9.77% (predicted). These findings support the technical and economic assessment of poly-crystalline PV deployment in Jordan and regions with similar climatic conditions.