Spillover impact of the U.S. monetary policy shock on China's economy: capital flow channel

Abstract

This study builds an open economy theoretical model with financial frictions to analyse the spillover impact of the U.S. monetary policy shock on China’s economy through capital flow channel. Bayesian technique is employed to estimate the TVP-VAR model and obtain three main results. First, the increase in the U.S. nominal interest rate causes the decline in China's capital inflow, which has a negative spillover impact on China’s economy and leads to the decline in China’s real output. Second, this negative spillover impact on China's economy has no structural time-varying characteristics. Third, the pass-through effect from international capital flow to China's real output is greater than that of international capital flow itself.