Who loses and who wins with the PEC 287/2016? An analysis of the pension wealth variation for the urban beneficiary of Brazilian social security system

Abstract

This study calculates the impact of the changes in the individual pension wealth due to the proposed constitutional amendment 287/2016 that provides on the retirement eligibility age, benefit replacement rate, benefit accrual formula, and reduced percentage of family benefits. It uses the expected cash flow in actuarial net present value for the contributions and benefits of voluntary retirement, disability retirement, and death pension, in addition to family benefits. The results show that the most affected, are those of almost full retirement age with little contribution time. However, surprisingly, for groups with a high contribution period (more than 29 years for men and 21 for women) and aged between 45 and 55 years for men and between 40 and 54 for women there is an actuarial wealth gain.