Looking for a Needle in a Haystack: Revisiting the Cross-country Causes of the 2008-9 Crisis by Bayesian Model Averaging

Abstract

In this paper we explore the cross-country variation in the output impact of the global financial crisis in 2008-9. We use the extensive dataset of Rose and Spiegel but control for the problems of model uncertainty and outliers by using a variety of Bayesian model averaging techniques. We find first that cross-country differences in crisis intensity can be explained by macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Second, ignoring model uncertainty can lead to incorrect inferences. Third, international trade linkages do matter.