Interdependence of the banking system development and the economic growth in the context of digitalization: Case study of Azerbaijan and its key trading partners

Abstract

When choosing a country as a trading partner, an important role is played by the speed, convenience, and reliability of banking services (this is primarily determined by the level of digitalization of banking activities), and the general level of economic growth of this country. The article analyzes the relationship between the efficiency of the banking system and the country’s economic growth under digitalization using the example of Azerbaijan and its key trading partners. Calculations were made using data for 2010–2021 based on World Bank, IMF, and UN statistics. Principal component analysis was used to identify the most relevant indicators that describe the stability of the banking system, the level of economic development of the country, and the level of digitalization; the method of structural modeling was used to identify functional relationships between the constructed synthetic generalizing indicators. Calculations showed that the development of the banking system is much more (almost seven times) influenced by the level of digitalization in the country than the level of economic growth (coefficients for synthetic generalizing indicators formed in the process of structural modeling are 0.29 and 0.04). Modeling proved that the focus of reforms aimed at increasing the level of digitalization in the country should be an increase in the number of electronic accounts, electronic payments, the share of the population using the Internet, growth of R&D expenditures, and innovation index.