An operational method for forecasting total column ozone for Punta Arenas, Chile

Abstract

Owing to the decrease of stratospheric ozone during the southern spring (starting in September), the city of Punta Arenas (53.1°S, 70.9°W) and its surroundings are exposed to a high incidence of ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation during this period. Ozone denatures DNA, and prolonged exposure may cause skin carcinoma and cataracts. Consequently, there is great concern among the inhabitants of this region regarding the possible effects of long-term exposure to UV-B. In this work we apply and further develop a pilot study carried out in 1995 which looks at the simple operational method of forecasting ozone levels some 42 hours in advance. The method is based on the prediction of the 100 mb-temperature from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is well correlated with total column ozone levels. It allows the inhabitants of the Magallanes region to be alerted to potentially high incidences of UV-B radiation during the Austral spring.