Using Copulas in the Estimation of the Economic Project Value in the Mining Industry, Including Geological Variability

Abstract

Geological variability is one of the main factors that has an influence on the viability of mining investment projects and on the technical risk of geology projects. In the current scenario, analyses of economic viability of new extraction fields have been performed for the KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. underground copper mine at Fore Sudetic Monocline with the assumption of constant averaged content of useful elements. Research presented in this article is aimed at verifying the value of production from copper and silver ore for the same economic background with the use of variable cash flows resulting from the local variability of useful elements. Furthermore, the ore economic model is investigated for a significant difference in model value estimated with the use of linear correlation between useful elements content and the height of mine face, and the approach in which model parameters correlation is based upon the copula best matched information capacity criterion. The use of copula allows the simulation to take into account the multi variable dependencies at the same time, thereby giving a better reflection of the dependency structure, which linear correlation does not take into account. Calculation results of the economic model used for deposit value estimation indicate that the correlation between copper and silver estimated with the use of copula generates higher variation of possible project value, as compared to modelling correlation based upon linear correlation. Average deposit value remains unchanged.