Analysis of prospects for the development of dairy cattle breeding in Russia: Forecasts and scenarios

Abstract

Since the import substitution policy was implemented in Russia, the production level of basic agricultural products has been gradually approaching their consumption standard. The dairy products consumption makes only 69.3% of the recommended norm, with the milk self-sufficiency ratio of the Russian Federation being 84.2% in 2018 against 90.0%. This was due to the trends of a steady decrease in the cow population, which resulted in milk production decline. The methodological basis for the problem research has been established on a set of methods of economic and mathematical modeling, involving the method for constructing scenarios and their quantitative justification. The main extrapolation method should be considered the trend modeling (linear and non-linear trends) supplemented by the expert assessment method.