Expert elicitation methods for studying technological change under uncertainty

Abstract

The recent study by Anadón et al (2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 034020) employs multiple expert elicitation to study the potential impact of public RD&D on nuclear power costs through 2030. This study achieves a rare depth and variation in multiple expert elicitation on the same problem, which allows the authors to carefully identify expert-level drivers of variations in assessments of outcomes and associated uncertainties. An important parameter - change in the future costs of nuclear fission technologies upon doubling of public RD&D - is also calculated. Overall, this study makes a significant contribution to both the decision-making under uncertainty literature focusing on technological change as well as the expert elicitation methodology literature. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.