From 2008–2011 Great Recession to COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of resilience metrics in European regions

Abstract

We aim to clarify the usefulness of different measures of economic resilience in the context of global shocks. In relation to the Great Recession, Oil& European migrant crises, and COVID-19, we compute and validate from a statistical point of view, then characterize five metrics on 317 NUTS2 regions and 21 years. ROC curves and Cox regression compare them by the capacity to predict the post-shock state. Heterogenous behavior characterizes resistance, recovery, and loss. Furthermore, the non-linear resistance performs best in future state prediction, while the composite index has the lowest efficiency as a predictor of the regions’ recovery.