Analysis of temporal–spatial changes of urban integrative carrying capacity to assess urban sustainability in the yangtze river delta area in China

Abstract

Chinese urbanisation is occurring at an alarming rate and rural-to-urban migration, urban land sprawl and eco-environmental changes are causing problems with urban integrative carrying capacity (UICC). Urban sustainability research based on the concept of UICC can be used to address these problems before they become irreversible. The Chinese government explicitly requested analysis of UICC prior to amending the Urban Master Plan in 2005. Different cities have different UICCs in relation to resources, lifestyles, industrial arrangements and development patterns. This article focuses on the city of Changzhou in the Yangtze delta region to explore the temporal–spatial changes of UICC. Changzhou has a long history of human-induced land-use modification and has experienced rapid economic growth. It has become an important industrial region since economic reform. This article analyses temporal changes of UICC based on principal component analysis of eco-environmental, urban public facilities and economic factors. The carrying capacity assessment was then performed for each determining factor. We utilised 1 km2 grid cell data in a geographic information system overlay, and performed an analysis to determine the spatial pattern of UICC, assessed the pivotal role of UICC in urban development planning and management and thus in effectively improving quality of life. © 2011, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.