Remarkable Changes in the Dominant Modes of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract

The analysis revisits the calculation of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and principal components (PCs) of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific from 1950 to 2021. The first EOF and PC of SST has proven to be such a useful metric of variability in the North Pacific that it is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We find that the period of persistent marine heatwaves beginning in 2014 caused a fundamental change to the first EOF and PC of SST (calculated using data from 1950 to 2021) as compared to the established PDO spatial pattern (calculated using data from 1950 to 1993). The second EOF of SST has also changed during this period, both in spatial pattern and in the amount of variance explained. A conclusion is that the PDO and other EOF based metrics may not be as useful in the future as climate continues to change.