Role of sociometry in determining the spread of Covid-19 cases amidst lockdown strategies

Abstract

India implemented nationwide lockdown to control COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. Despite lockdown for 100 days, the incidence of covid-19 does not seem to abate. Lockdown induced productivity loss caused severe economic stress. In any pandemic, initial lockdown is necessary for every country to ensure preparedness and public awareness. India erred in prolonging the initial spell of lockdown. During lockdown infected person will spend more time with family members and neighbours thereby infecting all with increase in k-value. In the absence of lockdown they may not find so much spare time to spend with his/her family or to visit neighbours with decrease in k-value. Although lockdown in India has reduced the rapidity of spread by bringing down R0to 1.27, it was achieved at the cost of prolonging the duration of the epidemic. In the absence of adequate herd immunity, lockdown may flatten the curve but area under the curve (AUC) will remain unaltered. The idea of lifting the lockdown with an aim of developing herd immunity in 60% of the younger population appears to be promising. Reverse quarantine of high-risk population appears to be a cost-effective method of containing the COVID pandemic in resource restricted countries like India.