Farmers' term of trade in Indonesia: An overview during pandemic COVID-19

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has an impact on the economic sector, including the agricultural sector. This research will look at the agricultural sector's condition, especially the welfare of farmers represented in the value of the Framers' Term of Trade (FTT) during the COVID-19 pandemic and will forecast FTT for September 2020. This research uses Farmers' Term of Trade (FTT) data obtained from the Indonesian Statistics Bureau (BPS). FTT data were used from January 2016 to August 2020. The Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), used to forecast the FTT value in September 2020, and the determination of the most optimal forecasting value used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results showed that the TFF value, recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic, experienced a drastic decline in May 2020 with a TFF value of 99.46. The forecasting calculations using the SES and MAPE methods showed that the most optimal FTT value for September 2020 was 100.63, with a MAPE value of 19.97 percent.