Employee Attrition Prediction: An Explanatory and Statistically Robust Ensemble Learning Model

Abstract

Organizational productivity and workforce management are highly affected by employee attrition. Thus, an employee attrition prediction system may allow human resource management to enhance the workplace by minimizing attrition. This study proposes a new and interpretable ensemble learning framework for employee attrition prediction. The model integrates SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)-based feature selection, Optuna hyperparameter optimization, and dual explainability using SHAP and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME). Random oversampling (ROS) is used to address class imbalance. The proposed framework allows for both global and local interpretability, enabling actionable insights into retention drivers. It was assessed using two benchmark datasets: the Kaggle HR Analytics dataset (14,999 records) and the IBM HR dataset (1470 records). The results revealed that the most impactful factors on employee attrition are promotion history, tenure, job satisfaction, workload, average monthly hours, overtime, and financial incentives. Furthermore, the proposed model achieved exceptional performance on both datasets. On the Kaggle dataset, it reached an accuracy of 98.72%, an F1-score of 97.29%, and an ROC–AUC of 0.994, while on the IBM dataset, it produced an accuracy of 97.72%, an F1-score of 97.74%, and an ROC–AUC of 0.995. Moreover, the proposed approach shows high computational efficiency, demonstrating that it is suitable for real-world deployment. These findings indicate that integrating explainable AI techniques, resampling tools, and automated hyperparameter tuning can achieve robust, accurate, and actionable employee attrition predictions, supporting HR managers’ decision-making.