PREDICTING THE POTENTIAL SUITABLE HABITAT FOR TAMARIX CHINENSIS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE BASED ON CMIP6 IN CHINA

Abstract

Tamarix chinensis (Tamaricaceae), a halophytic plant, is native to China. Tamarix chinensis has shown significant advantages in improving soil desertification and enhancing soil quality in coastal saline lands and can be used for ornamental and medicinal purposes with high scientific, ecological and economic values. The scarcity of information about geographic distribution under global climate change makes it difficult to promote better cultivation of this shrub. For this study, we modeled the current and future suitable growth areas in 2050 and 2070 for T. chinensis by the Maxent model using the latest Coupled Model Comparison Program 6 (CMIP6) data set. The results revealed that annual mean temperature, precipitation of wettest quarter, annual mean UV-B and elevation were identified as the most important factors affecting T. chinensis distribution. The total suitable potential distribution areas for T. chinensis encompassed ca. 191.38×104 km2, in which the highly suitable areas were mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the eastern coastal areas in China. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 126 scenario, we predicted an expansion of the suitable habitat range in 2050 followed by a contraction in 2070; however, under the SSP585 scenario, the suitable habitat range of T. chinensis would decrease in 2050 and 2070. Overall, T. chinensis showed a shift trend in distribution to higher latitudes and elevations with global warming. This study could provide a theoretical guidance for formulating management plans for T. chinensis and saline soil rehabilitation in the future.