Weakening relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO after mid-1970s

Abstract

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is characterized by the frequent cold surges and associated closely with the Siberia High, East Asian Trough, and high-level westerly jet stream. The ENSO cycle can modulate the EAWM since it has co-variability with the sea surface temperature over the Indo-Western-Pacific which can tune the land-sea thermal contrast for the EAWM. This paper, by analyzing the EAWM, ENSO, and associated atmosphere-ocean variability, documents the weakening of the EAWM-ENSO relationship after the 1970s. The significant out-of-phase inter-relationship is found to be diminished after the 1970s. Further study in this work suggests that the weakened co-variability of the tropical Indo-Western-Pacific climate associated with ENSO after the 1970s is partly responsible for the weakened inter-relationship. Meanwhile, the reduced EAWM interannual variability and northward retreat of the EAWM-associated climate variability are favorable to the weakened ENSO-EAWM connection. © 2012 The Author(s).