Cryptocurrency price forecasting method using long short-term memory with time-varying parameters

Abstract

Numerous research have been done to predict cryptocurrency prices since cryptocurrency prices affect global economic and monetary systems. However, investigations using linear connection approaches and technical analysis indicators frequently fall short of providing an explanation for changes in the pattern of BitCoin pricing. This paper is proposed to study time-varying parameters with long short-term memory (LSTM). The study is investigated on a dataset retrieved from Binance from March 2022 to April 2022. The proposed LSTM used a variety of hyperparameter settings, particularly time parameters, to predict the cryptocurrency price (BTC/USDT) on the dataset. Additionally, it is evaluated in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in comparison to smooth moving average (SMA), weighted moving average (WMA), and exponential moving averages (EMA). From the investigation, using the previous 3 days for prediction gives the lowest of the MAPE values and the proposed LSTM outperformed the other models. When considering the last three days' value of pricing, the indicated LSTM offers the best accurate prediction, with a MAPE percentage of 0.0927%.