Forecasting of banana production in Bangladesh

Abstract

In Bangladesh, banana is a very popular fruit and cultivated almost everywhere round the year. Rank of Bangladesh is 14 among the top 20 banana producing countries in the world. It is a commercial fruit, but in Bangladesh it is grown in limited area commercially. The demand of banana is increasing day by day in Bangladesh. Thus, this paper attempts to identify the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model that could be used to forecast the production of banana in Bangladesh. This study considered the secondary data of yearly banana production in Bangladesh over the period 1972 to 2013. The best selected ARIMA model to forecast the banana productions in Bangladesh is ARIMA (0,2,1). The graphical comparison between the observed and forecasted banana production indicate the fitted model behaved statistically well during and beyond the estimation period.