Baby face wins? Examining election success based on candidate election bulletin via multilevel modeling

Abstract

A growing body of research suggests that many voters rely on facial cues from political candidates to elect their leaders. Our study proposes that having a baby face could be an asset for a political candidate in a collectivist culture. Using election bulletin photographs from Taiwan's 2004, 2008 and 2012 legislative election, we look at the extent to which a candidate's baby face is related to election outcomes. Our multilevel modelling includes the number of candidates as Level 1 units, and the number of counties in which the candidates competed as Level 2 units. Vote share is the outcome variable. After considering the candidates' traits (perceived babyfacedness, competence, attractiveness and warmth) and background characteristics, babyfacedness was the strongest predictor of vote share. Results across three elections show consistent patterns: the more babyfaced the candidate, the greater the percentage of votes a candidate received, regardless of the candidate's gender, political affiliation or incumbency status. Babyfacedness is more influential than perceived competence, attractiveness and warmth.