The impact of uncertainty on state-level housing markets of the United States: The role of social cohesion

Abstract

While considering the role of social cohesion, we analyse the impact of uncertainty on housing markets across the 50 states of the United States, plus the District of Columbia, using the local projection method for panel data. We find that both short-term and long-term measurements of macroeconomic and financial uncertainties reduce real housing returns, with the strongest effect originated from the macro-economic uncertainty over the long term. Moreover, the degree of social cohesion does not change the nature of the impact of uncertainty on real housing returns dramatically, but the size of the negative effects is relatively large for states with low social cohesion.