Did the 2015 and 2016 parliamentary elections change the political cleavages in Croatia?

Abstract

Studies of voting behaviour in Croatia established the existence of deep divisions within the electorate over symbolic and identity issues. These divisions based on attitudes toward religion, tradition, and history, shaped the patterns of electoral behaviour after gaining independence and finally led to the consolidation of a bipolar pattern of political competition. However, in the elections held in 2015 and 2016 new political actors emerged with messages that cannot be placed within the traditional pattern of political divisions. Using electoral surveys fielded immediately after the 2015 and 2016 elections, this paper analyses whether electoral support for new political actors in these elections is a result of voters, especially younger voters, moving away from the traditional structure of political cleavages, and their mobilisation by other political issues. Analysis shows that support for new parties is largely due to sizable segments of voters moving away from traditional cleavages, and to a lesser extent, their mobilisation on new political issues.