Simulating Change in Cultural Landscapes: The Integration of Historic Landscape Characterisation and Computer Modelling

Abstract

More than 80 per cent of the world's landscapes are influenced significantly by human activities, and current land-use and land cover trends are likely to increase the rate of landscape change at a significant rate in the near future. To manage and guide landscape change, and an advocacy of positive landscape change–rather than attempts to stop change as in traditional preservationist approaches–requires the identification of threats and opportunities. Tools to do this will need to be based on well-investigated evidence for the long-term past evolution of landscapes and the understanding of possible future scenarios for change. Historic landscape characterisation (HLC) is a GIS-based method employed to interpret and study landscapes with a particular focus on representing and mapping the aspects of landscape character which result from past cultural processes. This paper introduces a new protocol which uses HLC data to model future landscape evolution and to simulate scenarios of landscape change. It describes a computer-based simulation framework derived from landscape ecology and used with HLC datasets during research on a region in southern Turkey. Such integrated modelling protocols have the potential to assist landscape planners to develop holistic and informative approaches to managing landscape change.