Development of A Decision Making Model for the Management of Influenza. A Proposal of Diagnostic Policy Based on Phenomena and Therapeutics.

Abstract

The management of influenza has dramatically changed since the introduction of the rapid influenza diagnostic test, or RIDT, and neuraminidase inhibitors (NI). However, it is still far from optimal due to low RIDT sensitivity and problems involving NI such as side effects and the potential emergence of resistant virus.Therefore, we developed a decision-making model for the management of influenza, which includes Kampo medicines in its strategies. First, the severity of patients is evaluated. If a patient is judged at severe or high-risk, intravenous NI would be the main component of treatment. If a patient has neither a severe condition nor is at high-risk, the patient would be asked to choose either NI or Kampo medicine. In the former, RIDT would be used if pretest probability was less than 50%, but it would not be used if it was more than 50%, based on the lack of influence on the post-test probability. For the latter, RIDT would be not used in general as Kampo targets "phenomena", not the virus per se. This model enables us to optimize the use of RIDT by appropriately selecting patients based on the characteristics of RIDT, and by avoiding unnecessary tests and their misinterpretation.