Study on Urban Resilience from the Perspective of the Complex Adaptive System Theory: A Case Study of the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration

Abstract

In the context of global environmental change and continuous urbanization, enhancing urban resilience is an important way to improve urban emergency management capacity and achieve sustainable development of urban systems. It is of great significance to clarify the mechanisms and effects of urban resilience and carry out resilience measurement to improve the level of urban system resilience and alleviate the pressure of environmental disturbances on the stable operation of urban systems. As an important part of the “Belt and Road” Initiative and one of the few leading economic regions in western China, promoting the high-quality development of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration is of profound significance for strengthening ethnic unity and stabilizing the northwest and southwest regions. Based on the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory and the adaptive cycle model, this study understands urban resilience as the comprehensive result of urban system stability, self-organization, learning adaptability and transformability, constructs a multi-level open index evaluation system, and analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of urban resilience of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration from the proposed design to the formal planning in 2010–2017. The findings are as follows: (1) Research on the urban resilience of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration verifies the applicability of the evolutionary urban resilience analysis framework and makes preliminary findings on urban resilience based on CAS theory, which provide a certain theoretical reference for the research on the spatio-temporal evolution of urban resilience. (2) From 2010 to 2017, significant differences are observed between various urban attributes. Resilience exhibits an overall upward trend, and spatial evolution changes from a double core (Lanzhou and Xining) to three cores (Lanzhou, Xining and Haidong) and polycentric modes. (3) Based on urban resilience characteristics and an urban system adaptability cycle model, this paper divides the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration cities into four types (exploitation–reorganization, conservation–release, conservation–exploitation and exploitation), and proposes corresponding adaptive management countermeasures. These could be adopted as a reference to promote the high-quality development of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration.