Niche dynamics in the European ranges of two African carnivores reflect their dispersal and demographic histories

Abstract

According to recent phylogeographical evidence, the common genet (Genetta genetta) and the Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) have dissimilar dispersal histories from Maghreb to south-western Europe. Through comparative ecological niche modelling based on >1100 occurrences, we assessed whether the niche dynamics (i.e. niche shift versus conservatism) of the two species in their European ranges reflected DNA-based demographic scenarios. Sensitivity analyses and projections of climatic niche models from the species' native ranges (Africa and Middle East) to Europe yielded support for (1) partial climatic niche shift in the northern European range of the common genet and (2) climatic niche conservatism in the Egyptian mongoose. Our results were consistent with demographic scenarios that predicted multiple introductions and demographic expansion in the common genet and long-term, stable historical demography in the Egyptian mongoose. Our models further predicted a range expansion of the common genet in north-western France and Italy, and progression of the Egyptian mongoose into Europe from the Near East. Overall, our study suggested a scenario of different niche dynamics in Europe for these two species of African carnivores, supporting the view that historical factors such as dispersal and demographic history may shape niche dynamics and thus distribution potential in colonized ranges.