Spatial Spillover Effects of the Real Estate Industry on Economic Development -from Destocking Perspective

Abstract

Based on the statistical data of 31 provinces of China from 2005 to 2015, A spatial lag model is applied to study the Spatial Spillover effects of the real estate industry on economic development. The results show that: the real estate stocks have a significant negative effect on regional economic development; Due to the economic downturn, the real estate investment and total investment in fixed assets continue decreasing, the descending speed of the former is faster than the latter. The real estate industry will, through its accounts for a high proportion of the total social investment, further through the accelerator effect, drag on economic growth; The increase of average price plays a positive significant role in boosting the development of regional economy in recent years; The profit rate of the real estate industry continues declining, and despite a further increase in the added value of real estate industry, it is not enough to significantly promote regional economic development. Therefore, to formulate effective policies can make the relationship more balanced between supply and demand of real estate, and can make real estate investment structure and inventory more reasonable, in order to make economic growth more stable.