Detailed paleoseismic history of the Hinagu fault zone revealed by the high-density radiocarbon dating and trenching survey across a surface rupture of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Kyushu, Japan

Abstract

The NE-trending Hinagu fault zone, length 81 km, is one of the major active faults in Kyushu, Japan. From north to south, it is divided into three segments based on geomorphic features and paleoseismic behavior: the Takano-Shirahata, Hinagu, and Yatsushiro Sea segments. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake produced a 6-km-long surface rupture with a dextral strike-slip displacement on the northern part of the Takano-Shirahata segment. Surface rupture, a faint east-side-up flexure with a vertical offset of less than 8 cm, was observed near the middle of the Takano-Shirahata segment. To examine past surface-rupturing earthquakes on the Takano-Shirahata segment, including rupture frequency and timing, we conducted a paleoseismic study with boring and trenching at Yamaide. A trench across the surface rupture exposed multiple fault strands associated with multiple surface-rupturing events that deformed several strata of fine-grained sediments. By structural and stratigraphic interpretation, high-density radiocarbon dating and tephra analysis, and Bayesian modeling, we constrained the timing of seven events, Events 1–7, to 0.84–1.25, 1.31–7.06, 9.99–11.0, 10.8–12.1, 12.0–13.0, 14.2–15.1, and before 14.8 kcal BP. Slip during Events 1–6 was obviously larger than the 2016 slip. The estimated average recurrence interval was about 2596–2860 years, but the interval between Events 2 and 3 was much longer than other intervals. Moreover, the vertical throw associated with Event 2 was larger than that of other events. This implies that the Takano-Shirahata segment has a period with rare larger earthquakes and a period with frequent smaller earthquakes. Some events might have produced ruptures on both the Takano-Shirahata and the northern part of the Hinagu segments simultaneously or in a short time. The variety of recurrence intervals suggests that the seismic activity has been affected by one or both activities of the Futagawa fault zone and the Hinagu segment.