Officials’ Rotation, Economic Growth and Environmental Accidents: Do They Affect the Political Promotion?

Abstract

Using the rotation of Chinese officials based on handle-collected data from political process of provincial officials in China from 1992 to 2012, this paper examines the influence of officials’ rotation, economic development and environmental accidents on the provincial officials’ promotion probability. The results are as following: 1) officials’ rotation and economic growth have a significant positive influence on the provincial officials’ promotion probability, and the officials’ rotation is more sensitive to the provincial officials’ promotion probability. 2) Environmental accidents have a significant negative influence on the provincial officials’ promotion. When three variables co-exist, the influence of economic development is not significant. 3) The results of different sub-samples based on the provincial officials’ types and regions are different.